Early Oscars Betting Guide - Make The Most Of Some Crazy Odds

There’s a special time in ‘Oscars season’. It comes after the standout pictures separate from the pack, but before the ceremony itself. It’s a time of conjecture, speculation and guesswork, and can often lead to wild predictions, like ‘The Counselor is going to win an Oscar’.

This unique period of Academy lingo also leads to varied odds, as great films get pushed out – sometimes as far as 66-1 – as others triumph in the various Oscars precursor awards.

With such variant betting options, it’s a good time to slap a cheeky buck or two while brilliant options drift out to attractive prices. American Hustle’s recent win at the New York Critics Circle Awards pushed it closer towards the shortest odds, but, for every action there’s an equal and opposite reaction, and it saw some other contenders arrive at a more attractive price. Here’s where you should be putting your money and why.

All odds are correct at time of writing, and can be found here.

Best Picture

Currently, _12 Years a Slave, Gravit_y and American Hustle are favorites to win ‘the big one’. And the jump to fifth favorite – Captain Phillips – is a big one, from 4/1 for the recent New York winner by David O Russell, to 16/1 for Paul Greengrass’s hostage thriller. Inbetween them is another Hanks film, Saving Mr. Banks, but if a Hanks film is going to win, we can’t look past Captain Phillips, and 16/1 is an excellent price for such a strong choice.

You’ll hear anyone who’s seen it wax lyrical about ‘those last five minutes’, and it’s testament to Paul Greengrass that he made a story – which, bear in mind, everyone already knew the ending of – so unpredictable and exciting.

“This is both Hanks's and Greengrass's best and sturdiest work in a decade; a film that feels less written, acted and shot than smelted, fused and riveted,” said Robbie Collin of The Daily Telegraph.

Watch the Captain Phillips trailer here

For you extreme outside betters, you can’t look past Inside Llewyn Davis, which stands at a staggering 66/1 with some outlets. $10 on that might make for entertaining viewing come awards night, because, let’s face it, Ellen DeGeneres won’t be that good.

Next page: make some extra cash with the Best Actor category

Best Actor

Again, it’s 12 Years a Slave offering up the shortest odds in this category, with Chitiwel Ejiofor taking pole position. Robert Redford sneaks into the second favorite slot for his turn in All is Lost. And while Matthew McConaughey represents great value at 5/1 for the Dallas Buyers Club, we’re plumping for a Hanks-centric Oscars 2014.

For all the reasons we championed Captain Phillips as a Best Picture winner, Hanks is a huge part of that success. Portraying the controversial character of Phillips, who has been criticized by his crewmates, in such a human, relatable way was the key to his success. And to punctuate the ending with a burst of sheer emotion; something he’d been threatening to do for the entirety of his abduction, was both expertly executed by Hanks and impeccably timed by Greengrass.

"It's the work of Tom Hanks that makes this film unforgettable,” says Richard Roeper on his site.

The Academy have their darlings, and Hanks is certainly one of them. We can see a double for the actor who picked up statuettes for Philadelphia and Forrest Gump in the two biggies, earning you a pretty penny along the way.

Next page: it's Best Actress category

Best Actress

This category is harder to call; Cate Blanchett is wonderful in Blue Jasmine – a film that we’d say is nailed on for Best Screenplay – but beyond that, the disparity between the odds isn’t as stark as the male category. But Emma Thompson, who is excellently frustrated opposite you-know-who in Saving Mr. Banks.

Alright, this all sounds like a big Tom Hanks love-in, but the point with Emma Thompson is that she totally steals the show from him in every way, despite him playing Walt Disney. The character of P.L Travers is sturdy; Thompson portrays her with wit and naivety, irritation and confidence, and for that she’s a great choice for a Best Actress gong.

“An enjoyable, occasionally laughable, and sometimes moving drama, with Emma Thompson on fine brittle form as the quintessentially English Australian who gave the world its most famous nanny,” said Catherine Bray of Film4.

Outsiders could look towards Meryl Streep/Julia Roberts in Osage County, who are both at 50/1, somehow.

Next page: Best Director

Best Director

12 Years a Slave completes a hat trick of favorites with this category, despite Alfonso Cuaron’s huge technical achievement with Gravity. There are so many tempting options for Best Director, which is famously one of the toughest sections to call. But considering a lot of outlets are offering odds on George Clooney for Monuments Men – a film that has been delayed, and is no longer eligible for the Oscars – we’re not exactly dealing with experts here.

Unless you go ahead and bet on it, of course...

No, for us, putting some money down on the Coen Brothers for Inside Llewyn Davis wouldn’t be a crazy decision at all. The charming movie tells the story of Davis’s entry to the Greenwich Village folk scene of 1961. Lead actor Oscar Isaac is being talked about as the starlet of Hollywood because of his turn, and what up-and-coming actor could dream of better mentors than Joel and Ethan Coen?

“As played by an eloquently beleaguered Oscar Isaac, Llewyn Davis is arguably the most vivid and complex character the Coens have dreamed up since Marge Gunderson,” wrote Chris Cabin of Slant Magazine.

Watch the trailer for Inside Llewyn Davis

The outside bet here is Woody Allen for Blue Jasmine, despite his torrid history with the Academy. But this could be the year for change, and given the undoubted quality of Blue, and his 66/1 odds, it’s certainly worth a punt.