Does 'American Hustle's' New York Win Mean Anything? Past Winners Examined

The reviews haven’t been filed yet, but American Hustle is already shaping up to be one of 2013’s best films. But who didn’t see that coming? David O Russell working with Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, Amy Adams and Christian Bale once again – the only thing ready to take this film down was it’s own pressure.

By now, the size of the Oscars gang has all but taken shape; Gravity, Captain Phillips, Blue Jasmine, 12 Years a Slave, Saving Mr. Banks and The Wolf of Wall Street are all in line for nominations, and following American Hustle’s win in the New York Film Critics Circle, its addition to the list is inevitable.

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The suave crime thriller picked up Best Picture, while Lawrence grabbed Best Supporting Actress. Co-writers Eric Singer and O Russell took another trip to the stage to pick up Best Screenplay, too. As one of the first major award ceremonies of the season, the NYFCC is often thought of as a bellwether for the Academy Awards, but is there really any correlation between the two? Let’s find out.

Next page: past winners and their Oscar fate

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Certainly, any film that wins big in New York is in line for a nomination from the Academy; 2007 was the only year in the last 11 years that a film won the NYFCC Best Picture award without being nominated for the same category at the Oscars. That was United 93.

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When it comes to actual Oscar winners, it has a pretty good record, too. In total, the prestigious New York gong has seen 31 eventual Oscar winners crowned, from 79 ceremonies – and it could still make it 32/79 should American Hustle prove triumphant in March 2014.

But the majority of those Oscars came on and before 1994, when there was – presumably – less competition and political bias involved in the selection process. In the 19 ceremonies since ’94, the NYFCC has picked out four winners: The Lord of The Rings: Return of The King, No Country for Old Men, The Hurt Locker and The Artist.

With a nomination basically guaranteed, American Hustle’s odds have dropped to make it third favorite behind Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity and Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave. You can still see it at 5/1, which could be worth a flutter considering it’s early success. Bottom line, though: an Oscar winner the NYFCC does not make.